Freight Under Pressure: Tight Capacity and Rising Costs Shape Q4

ALG Connect | September 30, 2026

Transportation costs remain under pressure as shippers head into the fourth quarter. Industry coverage over the past two weeks highlights a difficult combination: elevated diesel prices, limited truck availability and broader operating costs that continue to challenge carriers. For businesses moving print, mail and other freight, early planning and realistic transportation budgets are increasingly important.

 Capacity remains tight-even with uneven demand

A quieter freight market does not automatically mean more trucks are available. FreightWaves reported national tender rejection rates near 14% in late September, indicating that carriers were declining a meaningful share of contracted shipment requests. Its September 25 analysis identified pressure in markets including Joliet, Columbus, Allentown and Elizabeth, New Jersey. [1]

DAT’s September 29 report reinforces that picture. For September 20-26, dry van truck postings on DAT One were 26% below the same period last year. These postings measure activity on DAT’s marketplace, rather than the entire national truck fleet, but they offer another indication of limited available capacity. [2]

For shippers, these conditions can mean fewer options, more difficult last-minute coverage, and higher costs on affected lanes.

Fuel is driving costs-but it is only part of the story

DAT reported an average broker-to-carrier dry van spot rate of $3.01 per mile, including fuel, for September 20-26. That was five cents higher than the prior week, with the entire increase attributable to fuel; the underlying linehaul rate held steady. These are national market benchmarks, rather than customer quotes or ALG rates. [2]

Fuel surcharges help offset diesel expense, but they do not cover the full cost of providing transportation. FreightWaves’ September 28 coverage noted that carriers still bear fuel costs on empty miles. ACT Research also identified insurance, equipment, financing, and labor expenses as continuing pressures on carrier profitability. [3][4]

The implication is straightforward: even a high fuel surcharge does not mean every logistics cost increase has been recovered. A pause in diesel increases would not, by itself, remove the other pressures supporting freight prices.

Rail offers alternatives

Intermodal continues to attract interest as shippers seek savings on longer-haul freight. FreightWaves reported continuing intermodal momentum, while TRAFFIX’s September update recommended considering rail for longer-distance shipments with flexible transit requirements. [3][5]

Our assessment of the recent reporting is that capacity and cost pressures remain meaningful heading into Q4. Early communication gives customers and logistics partners more time to evaluate options and protect delivery commitments.

 Sources

Coverage reviewed: September 16-30, 2026. This article synthesizes selected relevant reporting; it is not an exhaustive review of every logistics publication.

1. FreightWaves, “Van Freight Tightens Up as Capacity Stays Fragile,” September 25
2. DAT market report via American Journal of Transportation, September 29
3. FreightWaves, “Diesel Up 10 Cents, Spot Rates Up 2: Margin Squeeze,” September 28
4. ACT Research, September freight rate update, September 28
5. TRAFFIX, September 21 market update, updated September 24